Vanishing species: voters under 45

Elections - Analysis of May's primary finds woeful turnout is hitting age groups once depended on for civic duties
Sunday, July 02, 2006
BETSY HAMMOND
The Oregonian

Almost 80 percent of registered Oregon voters in their 30s -- people settling into careers, buying homes and starting families -- opted to sit out May's primary election, an analysis by The Oregonian shows.

Older voters have always participated more heavily in elections than new voters. But when it came to picking nominees for governor, setting county commission lineups and deciding school bond issues in Oregon this spring, voters in their teens and early 20s weren't the only ones who sat out.

Barely one in four registered voters in their late 30s and early 40s voted. Voters ages 30 to 35 were no more likely than registered 18- and 19-year-olds to cast a ballot, the analysis found.

Voters older than 57 decided who won the primary by casting ballots at twice the rate of voters in their 20s, 30s and 40s .

For Shelly and Bruce Haines, ages 31 and 29, settling into a new home in Milwaukie and riding herd on three active young children crowded out the time needed to carefully study their Republican ballots this May -- so "we jointly made the decision not to vote," she says.

Oregon voters in their 70s, by contrast, voted in overwhelming numbers.

Annetta Skipworth, 79, doesn't consider herself a political junkie. But the Portland grandmother cast her vote in May -- just as she has every election since she became eligible and cast her first for President Truman, she says.

"Even if I only know enough to vote in one race, I always vote," she says. "On the governor, I wanted to be sure I had my choice there."

The sharply different turnout rates among senior citizens and older baby boomers versus younger boomers and Gen Xers were revealed in Oregon's first statewide voter database, created this year by a federal mandate in the 2002 Help America Vote Act.

Within days of the May primary election, it was clear that turnout was near the record low. Final numbers show 39 percent of registered voters cast ballots -- the third-lowest statewide primary turnout in 40 years, better only than 1994 and 1998. But the full picture of who voted and who did not was unclear.

The centralized database lists all 1.9 million registered Oregon voters' addresses, party affiliations and track records of returning ballots. The database makes clear that, by making sure they vote, older Oregonians wielded disproportionate political influence compared with their presence in the population.

"Shocking" lack of participation

Oregonians in their 20s and 30s outnumber Oregonians in their 70s almost four to one. But people in their 70s, with a turnout rate of 69 percent, cast more votes in May's primary election than all 575,000 registered voters ages 20 to 39 could muster.

Paul Gronke, chairman of Reed College's political science department and a specialist in American politics and voting, says even he finds that "shocking."

Gronke is 44. Fewer than one in three registered voters in his age range cast a primary ballot this year.

"People might want to think about . . . the implications for who gets elected and what kind of policies get passed," he says. "To the extent people in their 30s don't like the way things are getting done in Portland or in Oregon, well, they have to vote."

It shouldn't be surprising, he says, that Medicaid and Social Security get lots of money and attention while the costs of higher education rise and support for student loans falls. "Politicians don't feel they have to be as responsive to young people."

The reasons voters younger than 40 are tuning out politics and civic affairs are complex and long coming, political experts say.

Most people in their 30s pay property taxes, raise children, have strong feelings about neighborhood livability, get frustrated by commute times and otherwise care about issues affected by the government, they say.

But people in their 30s don't tend to read newspapers, cleave to a political party, trust government to help them or see voting as essential, and those all are barriers to getting them to vote, says Curtis Gans, director of the Center for the Study of the American Electorate at American University.

Loss of respect

Americans younger than 40 lived through a series of government lies and betrayals -- the Vietnam War, Iran-Contra, Monica Lewinsky, the imminent threat of weapons of mass destruction -- or were raised by parents who did, Gans says. The jaundiced eye of the news media amplifies voter doubts, he says. Cable TV fills hours and hours of most people's days -- and younger viewers aren't exactly glued to C-SPAN, he notes.

Breana Hall, 28, a college-educated Portland homeowner taking a break from her career to raise two young children, says she is a bit embarrassed she failed to send in her ballot this spring.

"I always try to vote," she says.

But, she acknowledges, "if it was that important to me, I would have made sure it was in on time, regardless of what was going on in my life."

Hall, a registered Democrat, says primary elections don't strike her as that important, since the general election is when most final decisions get made. She also says it's hard for voters to have real influence, "especially under the people we have in charge now."

Summer Davis, 31, helps oversee the statewide voter database as a compliance specialist in Oregon's Elections Division. She cautions against too much pessimism about young voters opting out.

In the 2004 general election pitting George W. Bush against John Kerry, 86 percent of Oregon voters cast ballots -- one of the top four turnout rates in the nation, she says. That included more than 80 percent of voters ages 20 to 25, normally the toughest age to get to vote, The Oregonian's analysis shows.

But Adam Davis (no relation), a partner in the polling firm of Davis, Hibbitts and Midghall who specializes in researching voter attitudes, says the lack of civic engagement among people in their 30s is real, new and troubling.

"For a long time what we were hearing was, 'Yes, young people aren't voting, but just wait until they have a job and they have kids and they have a house, and they'll become engaged.' I'm not seeing it. We have a real problem on our hands."

Eroding knowledge

Davis found that younger voters do not understand the basics of how government works, and so don't have a factual basis to care who wins elections.

"They don't know if the roads they are driving on are funded by the state or the local government. They have no idea who is providing a lot of the government services they enjoy in their communities. . . . I find they have a lot of knowledge about popular culture and very little about government."

"Today's 30s and 40s have already lost their tradition of voting, and they are not setting the example by participating and by holding schools accountable," he says. "So they're lost, and their children are lost" as regulars in civic engagement.

Still, Davis says he is optimistic.

He says he's hearing more talk from people with sway -- not politicians and government officials, but foundation leaders, small businesses and universities -- about launching improved civics coursework in Oregon schools and other moves to relight a passion for political engagement in younger people.

Marie Deatherage, communications and program officer at the Meyer Memorial Trust, says the foundation is devoted to helping Oregon be Oregon, including bolstering a tradition of strong civic engagement and voter participation.

"We have all heard that Oregon has tended to have high voter turnout, and we hear a lot of talk about the need to boost civic engagement. If somebody wanted to educate us about the issue and propose to do something to raise participation, and made a really compelling case that their plan might work, that is certainly something we would consider." Brad Thompson and Steven Carter of The Oregonian staff contributed to this report.

Betsy Hammond: 503-294-7623 or betsyhammond@news.oregonian.com

©2006 The Oregonian